Day-to-Day Homicides in Mexico Drop 37% During Claudia Sheinbaum, As per Government Statistics

The mean figure of per-day homicides per month in Mexico has decreased by more than a third since President Claudia Sheinbaum took office, as stated by fresh government statistics. Nevertheless, public safety specialists have cautioned that murder numbers could fail to indicate better national safety.

Notable Reduction in Per-Day Figures

Officials reported an average of almost 55 killings a day in November as opposed to roughly 87 when the President took the presidential office in the previous September. This data was provided by the chief of the nation's federal public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular news conference on a recent Tuesday.

“The result in killings that we’ve had during these months is remarkably significant,” the President stated, noting that last month the lowest number of homicides were documented for any November in the last decade.

Recent Background and Official Plan

Fierce drug cartel internal conflicts, coupled with the administration's heavily militarised campaigns to combat the cartels, have caused Mexico’s murder rate rise sharply in recent years. The rate reached a peak of 36,773 killings in 2020, as reported by the nation's official data office.

That gave Mexico a homicide figure over 4x higher than the United States. From that point, homicides have been on the downward trend, declining to 33,550 last year. Claudia Sheinbaum has linked her public safety plan for an ostensibly steeper drop in homicides this year.

At a press conference in the summer, the head of state declared: “We have a strategy, there is oversight of the plan, and we have specific monitoring town by town in some cases. The strategy is effective. And we have to continue working at it each day.”

The key components of Sheinbaum’s safety strategy include:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s federal guard.
• Advancing intelligence and investigation capabilities.
• Greater cooperation between various authorities.

Analyst Skepticism and Statistical Concerns

Nevertheless, public safety researchers warned that relying on murder numbers to draw a conclusion of peace was problematic. This is notably true in light of the uptick in different crimes such as forced disappearances.

“That would be excellent news if this was a drop, but I think we shouldn't just focus on the murder numbers and conclude: ‘Alright, great,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexican cartels. “I would be cautiously hopeful.”

As reported by the public policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, killings in total dropped by over 20% in the first 10 months of this year relative to the identical period the previous year. Yet, disappearances have risen by 15% and in certain states have increased by as much as 200%.

“Numbers on murders is not valid for gauging the context of public insecurity,” argued Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and prosecutors who do not have the capacity or the inclination to correctly recognize and classify corpses. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the ability to mask violence through disappearances.”

Vargas added that using monthly averages of everyday homicides was similarly an issue because it may hide days when there were particularly high numbers of killings.

“Using the per-day average makes spikes of violence invisible,” he stated.

Arrests and Seizures as Metrics of Success

An area where the government can cite the success of its security strategy is on arrests and seizures. Almost 40,000 people were arrested between October 2024 and this past November for high-impact crimes, per government data. Over 20,000 firearms were seized and 311 tons of drugs seized.

“Trump can't claim President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because in reality she is doing a lot with these thousands of arrests, many thousands of seizures, and all the tactical weakening of criminal groups. It’s highly in political terms profitable,” commented Vargas.

Ongoing Unrest and Public Frustration

However in spite of these actions, Mexico is still grappling with extreme violence, with a number of states in the midst of cartel-related conflict. In the previous month there was a notable assassination of a popular local official in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 local leaders assassinated in the past year.

A short time after, thousands of young people demonstrated in the capital and across the country to express their anger at corruption and drug violence.

“The administration frames [data] in a way to construct a narrative of safety. From a political standpoint it’s extremely successful, from a social perspective it’s highly debatable,” Vargas remarked.