Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the nation and caused disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or activists are willing to participate with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Both writes two essays that aim for impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass identity markers, duties, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there might be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will win here and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster should join the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
