The US Seizure of Maduro: How Trump Has Transformed the World's Superpower into a Rogue State
Amid the immense confusion following the United States attacks on Venezuela, the apprehension of President Nicolás Maduro, and statements from Trump that the US will “control” the country and “reclaim the petroleum resources”, there is no doubt – this establishes a profoundly disturbing precedent.
Past Interference and a New Threshold Crossed
The United States has a grim history of interference, invasion and occupation in that part of the world, but this past Saturday morning saw its premier large-scale offensive on the continent of South America. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” Trump proclaimed.
The move to assault another independent nation and seize its president – only a few days after he stated a desire for negotiations – has still wider repercussions. It should alarm us all.
Profound Uncertainty for Venezuela
Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, largely considered to have rigged the previous presidential vote. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has suggested that the vice president, Delcy Rodríguez would comply with American demands, and brushed aside prominent critic and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a plausible replacement.
However, Ms Rodríguez, now the acting leader, has so far adopted a posture of resistance – and other factions of the decapitated regime are considerably more radical.
The Superpower as Rogue State
A man who was elected promising to abandon foreign wars now says he is “unconcerned about deploying troops”. Rebranding the Department of Defense as the Department of War was a substantive signal. He no longer views the world’s superpower as a international peacekeeper; he is transforming it into a rogue state.
He believes that the United States' strength permits it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: consider the attacks in Nigeria and against Iranian nuclear sites. He asserts that control of Venezuela's petroleum means this latest episode “will pay for itself”.
An Attack Without Legal Justification
George W. Bush launched the invasion of Iraq on a lie. But this action without legal basis came absent any United Nations mandate or congressional approval; Democrats were not even informed and say they were actively misled in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to destroy them.
Put aside the implication this carries to leaders in Moscow, Beijing, and beyond, and ask where the US itself is heading. While the raid allegedly resulted in the deaths of 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, no US personnel died. Mr Trump’s increasing belief in his impunity will likely encourage more reckless actions.
The Stated Reason Versus the Real Aims
It is widely rejected the excuse that this is concerning narcotics. Venezuela is only a minor conduit for cocaine; Mr Trump recently exonerated the past Honduran leader Juan Orlando Hernández for narcotics and arms offenses. Mr Trump himself has been explicit that he is motivated by the lure of oil as well as a desire to project strength, the worldview of key officials, and the quest for a legacy as his standing with the American public falters.
World Leaders' Silence and a Weakened UN
The global reaction, especially in Europe, has – with honourable exceptions – been shockingly muted. That’s not due to Mr Maduro’s sins, but fear of Mr Trump’s wrath. The strong reaction from UN Secretary General António Guterres was welcome, but this episode emphasizes the UN's diminishing clout.
Mr Trump’s anti-interventionist domestic base could potentially force him to turn attention back home – but rising medical costs, public anxiety over the economy and distracting files increase his appetite for distraction.
We are not yet 12 months into his time in office. World leaders may come to rue the day if they remain quiet at this juncture, with the question of which nation is next looming.
